El fin de la exuberancia de China

Jul 23, 2013 Michael Spence

MILÁN – El crecimiento de China se ha desacelerado considerablemente desde 2010, y podría desacelerarse aún más – lo que inquieta a los inversionistas y los mercados mucho más allá de las fronteras del país. En vista de que muchos de los motores tradicionales de la economía global están varados a baja velocidad, el desempeño de China se ha vuelto cada vez más importante.

Sin embargo, actualmente las tasas de crecimiento de las exportaciones chinas y los índices conexos en materia de manufacturas han caído, debido principalmente a una débil demanda externa, particularmente en Europa. Además, las autoridades chinas están desacelerando gradualmente el otro motor principal del crecimiento de su país, la inversión pública, ya que los proyectos de bajos rendimientos parecen generar demanda agregada, pero se vuelven insostenibles con bastante rapidez.

El gobierno está utilizando varios instrumentos, incluida la disciplina crediticia del sector financiero, para controlar la demanda de inversiones. Básicamente, se está retirando la garantía del gobierno que va asociada al financiamiento de la inversión pública – como debe ser.

We hope you're enjoying Project Syndicate.

To continue reading, subscribe now.

Already have an account? Log in

Support High-Quality Commentary

For more than 25 years, Project Syndicate has been guided by a simple credo: All people deserve access to a broad range of views by the world's foremost leaders and thinkers on the issues, events, and forces shaping their lives. At a time of unprecedented uncertainty, that mission is more important than ever – and we remain committed to fulfilling it.

But there is no doubt that we, like so many other media organizations nowadays, are under growing strain. If you are in a position to support us, please subscribe now.

As a subscriber, you will enjoy unlimited access to our On Point suite of long reads and book reviews, Say More contributor interviews, The Year Ahead magazine, the full PS archive, and much more. You will also directly support our mission of delivering the highest-quality commentary on the world's most pressing issues to as wide an audience as possible.

By helping us to build a truly open world of ideas, every PS subscriber makes a real difference. Thank you.

Subscribe Now

Michael Spence

Writing for PS since 2008
130 Commentaries

Michael Spence, a Nobel laureate in economics, is Professor of Economics Emeritus and a former dean of the Graduate School of Business at Stanford University. He is Senior Fellow at the Hoover Institution, serves on the Academic Committee at Luohan Academy, and co-chairs the Advisory Board of the Asia Global Institute. He was chairman of the independent Commission on Growth and Development, an international body that from 2006-10 analyzed opportunities for global economic growth, and is the author of The Next Convergence: The Future of Economic Growth in a Multispeed World.

new comment has been posted. new comments have been posted.

0 Comments on this paragraph, 5 in all 5 Comments on this article

Pingfan Hong Jul 30, 2013

We have heard many economists talk about low returns to investment in China, but seldom see their numbers.

For the decades between 1991 and 2010, the average ratio of investment to GDP in China was at about 36 per cent, and the average GDP growth was 10.5 per cent, suggesting China yielded a rate of return to investment at 29 per cent (10.5/36), much higher than the rate of return in many other countries. For instance, in the same period, in Australia, an average ratio of investment to GDP of 24 per cent combined with 3.4 per cent GDP growth yielded a rate of return to investment at 14 per cent, while the rate of return in the United States was about 15 per cent by the same measure.
- Gustavo Almeida Feb 17, 2014
  
  The law of diminishing returns explains just that.
  A new reply to this comment has been posted.
- Yoshimichi Moriyama Aug 23, 2013
  
  What about the ratios in China for the decade between 2000 and 2010?
  A new reply to this comment has been posted.
A new reply to this comment has been posted.
Fabio Souza Jul 28, 2013

The middle-class in China will increase for a long time, there is about 48% still in rural area that may be forced to migrate to city. (Even in China – a country where wages roughly tripled over the last decade – the labour share went down as GDP increased at a faster rate than the total wage bill." by ILO - http://www.ilo.org/global/about-the-ilo/newsroom/news/WCMS_193553/lang--en/index.htm). Chinese will buy more but social reforms must occur to guarantee a better social security, public transport, health, education and housing. In some cities rent is very high due the real estate especulations. Another point is the expansion of credit to workers along with a better purchasing power of yuan.
A new reply to this comment has been posted.
Morten Elkjaer Jul 27, 2013

A key question to me seems to be why the chinese consumers have such a high propensity to consume? Which structural factors lie behind this; which structural reforms would be needed to reduce the propensity?

What role does increasing inequality play; what happens to as average income increases?

Is it true that there are only low return public sector investments left in China if one were to increase public investments further - and if one took into account investments in reducing pollution?
A new reply to this comment has been posted.