Paul Lachine

Das Ende des chinesischen Überschwangs

MAILAND – Seit 2010 hat sich das Wachstum Chinas deutlich verlangsamt, und es könnte noch weiter zurückgehen – eine Aussicht, die Investoren und Märkte weit über die Grenzen des Landes hinaus erschüttert. Angesichts dessen, dass viele der traditionellen Wachstumslokomotiven der Weltwirtschaft – wie die Vereinigten Staaten – schon länger im kleinen Gang festhängen, wurde die chinesische Wirtschaftsleistung immer wichtiger.

Aber nun sind die Wachstumsraten der chinesischen Exporte und die entsprechenden Produktionsindizes gefallen, hauptsächlich aufgrund der schwachen externen Nachfrage, insbesondere aus Europa. Und die chinesischen Behörden fahren nun die andere große Triebkraft ihres Wirtschaftswachstums zurück, nämlich die Investitionen im öffentlichen Sektor, da Projekte mit geringer Rentabilität zwar Gesamtnachfrage zu erzeugen scheinen, aber schnell an Nachhaltigkeit verlieren.

Die Regierung versucht auf unterschiedliche Weise, die Investitionsnachfrage zu zügeln, beispielsweise durch die Förderung der Kreditdisziplin des Finanzsektors. Im Wesentlichen bedeutet dies, dass es keine staatliche Garantie für die Finanzierung der Investitionen des öffentlichen Sektors mehr gibt – und so sollte es sein.

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