Pedro Molina

Keynes – Hayek: der Rückkampf

LONDON: Der österreichische Ökonom Friedrich von Hayek, der 1992 im Alter von 93 Jahren verstarb, bemerkte einst, dass es, um das letzte Wort zu haben, ausreiche, alle seine Widersacher zu überleben. Sein großes Glück war es, dass er Keynes um beinahe 50 Jahre überlebte und daher einen posthumen Sieg über einen Rivalen erzielte, von dem er, solange dieser noch lebte, intellektuell Prügel bezogen hatte.

Hayeks Apotheose kam in den 1980er Jahren, als die britische Ministerpräsidentin Margaret Thatcher sich angewöhnte, aus The Road to Serfdom (1944), seinem klassischen Angriff auf die Planwirtschaft, zu zitieren. Doch in der Ökonomie gibt es keine endgültigen Urteile. Während Hayeks Verteidigung des Marktsystems gegen die plumpe Ineffizienz zentraler Planung zunehmend auf Zuspruch stieß, hielt sich in den Finanzministerien und Notenbanken Keynes’ Sicht, dass Marktsysteme kontinuierlicher Stabilisierung bedürfen.

Beide Traditionen jedoch wurden von der Chicagoer Schule „rationaler Erwartungen“ in den Hintergrund gedrängt, die den ökonomischen Mainstream für die letzten 25 Jahre dominierte. Laut dieser Sichtweise, die davon ausgeht, dass wirtschaftlich Handelnde über alle möglichen Eventualitäten perfekt informiert sind, können systemische Krisen nur infolge von Unfällen und Überraschungen vorkommen, die außerhalb der Reichweite der Wirtschaftstheorie liegen.

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