La guerre d’Irak, dix ans plus tard

CAMBRIDGE – Il y a dix ans ce mois-ci débutait l’invasion controversée de l’Irak, lancée par une coalition dirigée par les États-Unis. Quelles ont été les retombées de cette décision au cours de la décennie écoulée ? Et plus important, cette décision a-t-elle été prise à bon escient ?

Dans une perspective positive, les analystes soulignent le renversement de Saddam Hussein, la mise en place d’un gouvernement élu, et une économie qui croît de 9 pour cent par an, avec des exportations de pétrole dépassant le niveau d’avant-guerre. Certains, comme Nadim Shehadi du groupe de réflexion britannique Chatham House, vont plus loin en affirmant que si « les Etats-Unis ont certainement eu les yeux plus gros que le ventre en Irak », l’intervention américaine « pourrait avoir sorti la région d’une stagnation qui a dominé les vies d’au moins deux générations ».

Les sceptiques rétorquent qu’il est faux de lier la guerre d’Irak au printemps arabe, parce que les événements de 2011  en Tunisie et en Égypte avaient leurs propres causes, et que la rhétorique et les actes du président George W. Bush ont plus discrédité la cause de la démocratie dans la région qu’ils ne l’ont fait progresser. Le renversement de Saddam Hussein était certes important, mais l’Irak est aujourd’hui un pays où règne la violence, dirigé par un gouvernement sectaire, avec un indice de corruption qui le place au 169e rang sur 174 pays.

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