十年后的伊拉克战争

剑桥——这个月即将迎来颇受争议的美国入侵伊拉克十周年纪念日。这项决策十年来产生了哪些影响?更重要的是,入侵是否有正当的理由?

分析师指出伊拉克战争的积极效果是推翻萨达姆·侯赛因、建立民选政府、实现近9%的年度经济增长以及超过战前的石油出口。查塔姆研究所的纳迪姆·什哈蒂等人甚至认为虽然“美国肯定消化不了伊拉克行动,”但美国的干预“或许已经帮助该地区摆脱了困扰至少两代人的经济停滞。”

怀疑者反驳说伊拉克战争和“阿拉伯之春”两者间没有必然的联系,因为2011年的突尼斯和埃及事件自有其缘由,而乔治·W·布什总统的言论和行动不仅没有推进,反而破坏了该地区的民主声誉。推翻萨达姆的确是重要结果,但伊拉克现已成为宗派团体治下的暴力之地,其腐败指数在194个国家中排名第169。

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