Die Welt im Jahre 2030

CAMBRIDGE – Natürlich weiß niemand, wie die Welt in zwei Jahrzehnten aussehen wird, doch gewisse Dinge sind wahrscheinlicher als andere. Unternehmen und Regierungen werden fundierte Abschätzungen vornehmen müssen, weil einige ihrer Investitionen länger als 20 Jahre Bestand haben werden. Der National Intelligence Council (NIC) der USA hat im Dezember seine Einschätzung veröffentlicht: Global Trends 2030: Alternative Worlds.

Der NIC erwartet eine veränderte Welt, in der „kein Land – weder die USA noch China noch irgendein anderes großes Land – eine Hegemonialmacht sein wird“. Dies spiegelt vier „Megatrends“ wider: die Stärkung des Individuums und das Heranwachsen einer globalen Mittelschicht, die Diffusion der Macht vom Staat hin zu informellen Netzwerken und Bündnissen, durch Urbanisierung, Migration und gesellschaftliche Alterung bedingte demographische Veränderungen sowie eine erhöhte Nachfrage nach Nahrungsmitteln, Wasser und Energie.

Jeder dieser Trends, so der Bericht, verändert unsere Welt und wird „den historischen Aufstieg des Westens seit 1750 weitgehend umkehren, Asiens Gewicht in der Weltwirtschaft steigern und eine neue Ära der ‚Demokratisierung‘ auf internationaler und nationaler Ebene einleiten“. Die USA werden in Bezug auf Hard Power und Soft Power „Erster unter Gleichen“ bleiben, doch „das ‚unipolare Moment‘ ist vorbei“.

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