中国减速的政治学

新加坡—最近在中国发生的金融动荡——银行间贷款利率在几天时间里飙升到两位数——进一步确认世界第二大经济体迈向了硬着陆。在大规模信用增长的推动下(2008—2012年间相当于GDP的30%),中国经济的金融杠杆率已是新兴市场之最。这不会有好结果。

事实上,野村证券的一份最新研究发现,当下中国金融风险轮廓与泰国、日本、西班牙和美国在金融危机前夕惊人地相似。所有爆发危机的经济体在信用泡沫破裂前夕的五年中,金融杠杆率——国内信用与GDP之比——都升高了30个百分点。

坚持认为中国金融杠杆率并不太高的经济学家是日渐凋零的少数派。显然,中国人民银行认为金融杠杆已经升到了危险的水平,6月份,为了抑制贷款增长,中国人民银行发动了一次信用紧缩。

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