La trappola dell’hot money

SHANGHAI – La recente crisi finanziaria ha visto l’Asia emergere come potenza economica, o meglio, come forza trainante della crescita globale. Più o meno tra cinque anni, l’economia totale dell’Asia potrebbe essere più grande di quella di Stati Uniti e Unione europea messi insieme.

A dire il vero, mentre l’Asia cresce, i ricchi paesi industriali del vecchio G7 stanno cadendo nella trappola della liquidità. Dal momento che l’attuale recessione ha dato fondo ai tradizionali strumenti di politica monetaria, le banche centrali stanno optando per nuovi cicli di quantitative easing (QE). E con gli investitori a caccia di rendimenti appetibili, una maggiore espansione monetaria, soprattutto da parte degli Stati Uniti, riverserà “hot money” (flussi di capitali per investimenti in portafogli a breve scadenza) sui mercati emergenti ad alto rendimento, che potrebbero gonfiare pericolose bolle di asset in Asia, America Latina e in altre aree.

La Federal Reserve americana e l’amministrazione Obama restano retoricamente devote al mantenimento di un “dollaro forte”. Eppure, è l’indebolimento del dollaro ad incentivare gli utili societari a stelle e strisce dallo scoppio della crisi, spingendo il Dow Jones Industrial Average sopra gli 11.000 punti, per la prima volta da maggio. Dagli inizi del 2002, il dollaro ha perso un terzo del suo valore rispetto alle maggiori valute, e negli ultimi tempi tale declino si è intensificato.

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