Le prix d'une guerre avec l'Iran

WASHINGTON – La poursuite du programme nucléaire iranien constitue l'un des plus grands défis du deuxième mandat du président Obama : un Iran nucléarisé risque d'affaiblir la position stratégique des USA au Moyen-Orient, mais une action militaire pour entraver les progrès de l'Iran sur la voie nucléaire comporte d'énormes risques stratégiques et économiques.

S'il devient détenteur de l'arme nucléaire, l'Iran sera en meilleure position pour se protéger, ainsi que pour faire pression sur ses voisins et les intimider. Dans ce cas, les alliés des USA dans la région auront besoin de garanties de sécurité supplémentaires. Mais un accroissement de la présence américaine pourrait susciter des réactions hostiles de la part de groupes radicaux et accaparer des moyens militaires nécessaires à la défense des intérêts américains en Asie du Sud et du Sud-Est.

Certains des critiques conservateurs d'Obama pensent qu'il laissera l'Iran progresser vers l'arme nucléaire tant qu'il n'en est pas au point de la fabriquer. Mais aucun président américain ne veut laisser le souvenir d'un dirigeant qui aura laissé un régime tellement hostile acquérir cette arme, alors que cela permettrait d'éviter une intervention militaire d'un coût stratégique bien plus élevé.

To continue reading, please log in or enter your email address.

Registration is quick and easy and requires only your email address. If you already have an account with us, please log in. Or subscribe now for unlimited access.


Log in

  1. Sean Gallup/Getty Images

    Angela Merkel’s Endgame?

    The collapse of coalition negotiations has left German Chancellor Angela Merkel facing a stark choice between forming a minority government or calling for a new election. But would a minority government necessarily be as bad as Germans have traditionally thought?

  2. Trump Trade speech Bill Pugliano/Getty Images .

    Preparing for the Trump Trade Wars

    In the first 11 months of his presidency, Donald Trump has failed to back up his words – or tweets – with action on a variety of fronts. But the rest of the world's governments, and particularly those in Asia and Europe, would be mistaken to assume that he won't follow through on his promised "America First" trade agenda.

  3. A GrabBike rider uses his mobile phone Bay Ismoyo/Getty Images

    The Platform Economy

    While developed countries in Europe, North America, and Asia are rapidly aging, emerging economies are predominantly youthful. Nigerian, Indonesian, and Vietnamese young people will shape global work trends at an increasingly rapid pace, bringing to bear their experience in dynamic informal markets on a tech-enabled gig economy.

  4. Trump Mario Tama/Getty Images

    Profiles in Discouragement

    One day, the United States will turn the page on Donald Trump. But, as Americans prepare to observe their Thanksgiving holiday, they should reflect that their country's culture and global standing will never recover fully from the wounds that his presidency is inflicting on them.

  5. Mugabe kisses Grace JEKESAI NJIKIZANA/AFP/Getty Images

    How Women Shape Coups

    In Zimbabwe, as in all coups, much behind-the-scenes plotting continues to take place in the aftermath of the military's overthrow of President Robert Mugabe. But who the eventual winners and losers are may depend, among other things, on the gender of the plotters.

  6. Oil barrels Ahmad Al-Rubaye/Getty Images

    The Abnormality of Oil

    At the 2017 Abu Dhabi Petroleum Exhibition and Conference, the consensus among industry executives was that oil prices will still be around $60 per barrel in November 2018. But there is evidence to suggest that the uptick in global growth and developments in Saudi Arabia will push the price as high as $80 in the meantime.

  7. Israeli soldier Menahem Kahana/Getty Images

    The Saudi Prince’s Dangerous War Games

    Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman is working hard to consolidate power and establish his country as the Middle East’s only hegemon. But his efforts – which include an attempt to trigger a war between Israel and Hezbollah in Lebanon – increasingly look like the work of an immature gambler.