Paul Lachine

La tragedia griega, segundo acto

CHICAGO – Una tragedia griega típica se compone de tres actos. En el primero se dispone la escena; pero para que la trama alcance el clímax, hay que esperar al segundo acto. En la Grecia de la actualidad, la imposición de pérdidas “voluntarias” a los acreedores privados del país representa solamente el fin de la primera parte. La tragedia real todavía está por desarrollarse.

A juzgar por las apariencias, el acuerdo “voluntario” con los acreedores puede parecer un éxito rotundo. El volumen de la deuda externa de Grecia se redujo en más de cien mil millones de euros (ciento treinta mil millones de dólares) y los socios europeos de Grecia prestaron otros ciento treinta mil millones de euros. Así, Grecia evitó una seguidilla de quiebras de bancos y pudo seguir pagando a sus empleados públicos.

Pero a pesar de estos resultados tan publicitados, la realidad es mucho peor de lo que parece. Incluso después del último acuerdo, la deuda de Grecia todavía representa el 120% del PIB del último año. Con la contracción del 7% del PIB prevista para este año y el déficit sostenido, la proporción deuda/PIB se irá por encima del 130%, para luego estabilizarse en 2020 en un 120%.

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