Paul Lachine

希腊悲剧,第二幕

芝加哥——希腊悲剧通常由三幕组成。第一幕设下悲剧的场景。然而,只有到了第二幕,剧情才达到高潮。对于今天的希腊,私人债权人的“自愿”损失政策的实施恰恰代表着另一个开端的完结。真正的悲剧还将上演。

表面上看,对债权人的“自愿”政策,似乎一直是个很大的成功。希腊的外债额已减少了1000多亿欧元(约合1300亿美元)。希腊的欧洲伙伴为其提供了1300亿欧元的新贷款。因此,希腊逃过了大范围的银行倒闭这一浩劫,此外它已经能够继续为其公共部门的雇员发放薪水。

但是,尽管希腊大肆吹嘘这些成果,现实却更加严酷。即使在最新的协议下,希腊的债务比率仍保持在去年国内生产总值的120%。今年,国内生产总值预计下降7%,财政赤字还将持续,由此一来,在2020年稳定为120%之前,希腊的债务比率可能会超过130%。

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