未来的通胀幽灵

第戎—眼下,在困扰世界经济的诸多问题中,通货膨胀似乎是最不令人担心的一个。2008年以降的经济困境来源于过度负债,在解决这一问题的过程中,决策者正确地将精力集中在可能导致萧条的债务通缩危险。

但将通胀视为“昨天的问题”而不予关注不利于央行解决当今最紧迫的问题,也将最终助长通胀的卷土重来。理解20世纪60年代末到80年代初的大通胀如何是解决的能为解决重大经济问题提供重要教训(不管我们现在所处的时代已有了多大的不同),也能为未来所面临的的危险提供洞见。

第一个有益教训与预期有关。在二战结束后的几十年中,需要在通胀和就业之间进行权衡的思想——其基础是威廉·菲利普斯(William Phillips)1958年提出的关系——主宰着经济思想界。但菲利普斯曲线在20世纪70年代表现不佳,当时许多国家经历了“滞涨”(高通胀和高失业并存)。

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