Il grande miraggio americano

NEW HAVEN – Nel settembre del 1998, nel pieno della crisi finanziaria asiatica, Alan Greenspan, allora presidente della Federal Reserve, lanciò un messaggio chiaro e semplice affermando che gli Stati Uniti non erano un oasi di prosperità in un mondo altrimenti in difficoltà. Il pensiero di Greenspan è molto più vero oggi di quanto non lo fosse allora.

E’ vero che la traiettoria dell’economia statunitense negli ultimi tre anni è stata caratterizzata da una ripresa debole, ma si tratta pur sempre di una ripresa, a quanto sostengono in molti, e quindi di una fonte di capacità di recupero in un mondo sviluppato che si trova, in caso contrario, in seria difficoltà. Al contrario della Grande Recessione del 2008-2009, oggi si spera di gran lunga che l’America abbia la capacità di mantenere la rotta e di sostenere il resto del mondo nel bel mezzo della crisi dell’euro.

Pensateci bene. A partire dal primo trimestre del 2009 quando l’economia statunitense stava toccando il fondo dopo la sua peggiore recessione sin dal dopoguerra, le esportazioni hanno contribuito per il 41% al successivo effetto rebound. Proprio così: con il blocco del consumo negli Stati Uniti nella fase successiva al più grande periodo di consumo della storia, l’economia statunitense ha preso il suo sostentamento dai mercati esteri in modo sproporzionato. Dato che quegli stessi mercati si trovano ora in difficoltà, gli Stati Uniti potrebbero rapidamente fare la stessa fine.

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