Barrie Maguire

Zlatý mamon a zlatá bublina

NEW YORK – Ceny zlata strmě rostou, prolomily tisícidolarovou hranici a v posledních týdnech šplhají k 1200 dolarů za unci a výš. Dnešní „zlatí mamonáři“ tvrdí, že cena by mohla dojít až ke 2000 dolarů. Současné cenové vzedmutí se ale podezřele podobá bublině, kdy ekonomické fundamenty vysvětlují zvýšení ceny jen zčásti.

Ceny zlata prudce rostou jen ve dvou situacích: když je vysoká inflace a ještě roste, zlato se stává ochranou proti ní, a když existuje riziko bezmála deprese a investoři se obávají o bezpečnost svých bankovních vkladů, zlato se jim stává bezpečným útočištěm.

Poslední dva roky do tohoto vzorce zapadají. Ceny zlata začaly prudce stoupat v první polovině roku 2008, kdy se přehřívaly rozvíjející se trhy, zvyšovaly se komoditní ceny a panovaly obavy z růstu inflace na rychle rostoucích rozvíjejících se trzích. I tento vzestup byl zčásti bublinou, která praskla ve druhé půli roku 2008, kdy – poté, co cena ropy dosáhla 145 dolarů a zadusila globální růst – světová ekonomika sklouzla do recese. Jelikož obavy z inflace vystřídal strach z deflace, ceny zlata začaly klesat společně s korekcí komoditních cen.

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