Barrie Maguire

黄金泡沫黄金虫

纽约——金价一路飙升,突破1000美元大关,近几周更是企及1200美元,且还在上涨。那些一味看多黄金的投资客——所谓“黄金虫”——断言金价可摸高2000美元。然而,近来的金价涨势颇有泡沫嫌疑,因为经济基本面并不完全支持如此高价。

但凡金价飙升,无非是两种情形:要么通货膨胀严重且仍在加剧,这时黄金成为对冲通胀的一种工具;要么经济存在准萧条(near-depression)风险,投资者对银行存款安全忧心忡忡,这时黄金成为一个避风港。

过去两年的金价走势符合上述规律。2008年上半年,金价开始猛涨,当时,新兴市场经济过热,大宗商品价格不断走高,人们担心新兴市场在高增长的同时出现高通胀。即便是这种由对冲通胀导致的金价上涨也不乏泡沫成分,到了2008年下半年,当高达145美元的油价开始扼杀全球增长势头之时,世界经济滑入衰退。对通缩的担忧取代了对通胀的恐惧,金价也随其他大宗商品价格一道开始向下调整。

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