Barrie Maguire

黄金泡沫黄金虫

纽约——金价一路飙升,突破1000美元大关,近几周更是企及1200美元,且还在上涨。那些一味看多黄金的投资客——所谓“黄金虫”——断言金价可摸高2000美元。然而,近来的金价涨势颇有泡沫嫌疑,因为经济基本面并不完全支持如此高价。

但凡金价飙升,无非是两种情形:要么通货膨胀严重且仍在加剧,这时黄金成为对冲通胀的一种工具;要么经济存在准萧条(near-depression)风险,投资者对银行存款安全忧心忡忡,这时黄金成为一个避风港。

过去两年的金价走势符合上述规律。2008年上半年,金价开始猛涨,当时,新兴市场经济过热,大宗商品价格不断走高,人们担心新兴市场在高增长的同时出现高通胀。即便是这种由对冲通胀导致的金价上涨也不乏泡沫成分,到了2008年下半年,当高达145美元的油价开始扼杀全球增长势头之时,世界经济滑入衰退。对通缩的担忧取代了对通胀的恐惧,金价也随其他大宗商品价格一道开始向下调整。

To continue reading, please log in or enter your email address.

Registration is quick and easy and requires only your email address. If you already have an account with us, please log in. Or subscribe now for unlimited access.

required

Log in

http://prosyn.org/ZRAb2gd/zh;
  1. Sean Gallup/Getty Images

    Angela Merkel’s Endgame?

    The collapse of coalition negotiations has left German Chancellor Angela Merkel facing a stark choice between forming a minority government or calling for a new election. But would a minority government necessarily be as bad as Germans have traditionally thought?

  2. Trump Trade speech Bill Pugliano/Getty Images .

    Preparing for the Trump Trade Wars

    In the first 11 months of his presidency, Donald Trump has failed to back up his words – or tweets – with action on a variety of fronts. But the rest of the world's governments, and particularly those in Asia and Europe, would be mistaken to assume that he won't follow through on his promised "America First" trade agenda.

  3. A GrabBike rider uses his mobile phone Bay Ismoyo/Getty Images

    The Platform Economy

    While developed countries in Europe, North America, and Asia are rapidly aging, emerging economies are predominantly youthful. Nigerian, Indonesian, and Vietnamese young people will shape global work trends at an increasingly rapid pace, bringing to bear their experience in dynamic informal markets on a tech-enabled gig economy.

  4. Trump Mario Tama/Getty Images

    Profiles in Discouragement

    One day, the United States will turn the page on Donald Trump. But, as Americans prepare to observe their Thanksgiving holiday, they should reflect that their country's culture and global standing will never recover fully from the wounds that his presidency is inflicting on them.

  5. Mugabe kisses Grace JEKESAI NJIKIZANA/AFP/Getty Images

    How Women Shape Coups

    In Zimbabwe, as in all coups, much behind-the-scenes plotting continues to take place in the aftermath of the military's overthrow of President Robert Mugabe. But who the eventual winners and losers are may depend, among other things, on the gender of the plotters.

  6. Oil barrels Ahmad Al-Rubaye/Getty Images

    The Abnormality of Oil

    At the 2017 Abu Dhabi Petroleum Exhibition and Conference, the consensus among industry executives was that oil prices will still be around $60 per barrel in November 2018. But there is evidence to suggest that the uptick in global growth and developments in Saudi Arabia will push the price as high as $80 in the meantime.

  7. Israeli soldier Menahem Kahana/Getty Images

    The Saudi Prince’s Dangerous War Games

    Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman is working hard to consolidate power and establish his country as the Middle East’s only hegemon. But his efforts – which include an attempt to trigger a war between Israel and Hezbollah in Lebanon – increasingly look like the work of an immature gambler.