Now the World

Hans-Werner Sinn

MÜNCHEN — Die  Weltwirtschaft erlebte von 2004 bis 2007 mit Wachstumsraten nahe bei 5% einen ungewöhnlich langen und kräftigen Boom, der auf viele Länder ausstrahlte. Die Europäische Union (EU15) kam im Durchschnitt dieser Jahre auf 2,4%. Für Deutschland, das in dieser Zeit mit durchschnittlich 1,8%  wuchs, feierten manche Presseorgane bereits das neue Wirtschaftswunder. Jetzt aber lassen immer häufigere Hiobsbotschaften ernste Zweifel aufkommen; besonders aus Amerika ziehen dunkle Wolken heran. Steht die Weltwirtschaft vor einer Rezession?

In den USA sind die Immobilienpreise noch immer im Sturzflug, die Bankenkrise findet immer neue Opfer (Bear Stearns, IndyMac, First Heritage Bank, First National Bank of Nevada, First Priority Bank, Freddie Mac, Fannie Mae; usw.), in der Bankenwelt insgesamt rechnet man bereits mit wesentlich mehr Abschreibungen als nur den 400 Mrd. Euro, von denen im Frühjahr die Rede war. Die Arbeitslosigkeit steigt so schnell wie seit sieben Jahren nicht mehr. Die Erwerbstätigkeit, wenn auch im historischen Vergleich immer noch recht hoch, nimmt seit Jahresbeginn 2008 kontinuierlich ab. Erstaunlich ist nur, dass der Börsencrash in Amerika noch nicht stattgefunden hat, denn alles zeigt ansonsten nach unten. Das Kurs-Gewinn-Verhältnis der Standard ampamp; Poor’s Werte lag zuletzt mit rund 24 immer noch weit über dem langfristigen Mittelwert von ca. 16, den man seit 1881 beobachtet hat.

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