L'heure de la tempête sur l'économie mondiale approche  !

MUNICH – De 2004 et 2007, de nombreux pays à travers le monde ont connu un boom économique inhabituellement long, avec un taux de croissance moyen proche de 5%. L’Union européenne (l'UE des 15) a enregistré une croissance moyenne annuelle de 2,4% durant toute cette période. En Allemagne où ce taux était de 1,8%, certains journalistes ont parlé d'un nouveau miracle économique. Mais on n'en est plus là, les nouvelles sont de plus en plus inquiétantes, des nuages noirs s'amoncellent, en particulier au-dessus des USA. L'économie mondiale est-elle au bord de la récession ?

Aux USA, les prix de l'immobilier sont toujours en chute libre et la crise bancaire fait de nouvelles victimes (Bear Stearns, IndyMac, la First Heritage Bank, la First National Bank of Nevada, la First Priority Bank, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, etc.). Dans le secteur bancaire, les pertes (write-off) dépassent maintenant largement la barre des 400 milliards d'euros anticipés au printemps dernier.

Par ailleurs, le chômage croit à son taux le plus élevé depuis sept ans. Le volume de la population active, qui reste encore important dans une perspective historique, baisse régulièrement depuis le début de l'année. Il est surprenant que la Bourse américaine ne se soit pas encore écroulée, car tous les autres indicateurs sont à la baisse. Le rapport cours/bénéfice de Standard ampamp; Poor se situait récemment autour de 20, bien au-dessus du taux moyen à long terme de 16 depuis 1881.

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