El futuro de la alianza entre los Estados Unidos y el Japón

Cambridge – Muchos analistas advierten actualmente un malestar en el Japón en relación con su alianza con los Estados Unidos. Tiene que ver en parte con las armas nucleares de Corea del Norte y la preocupación por que los EE.UU. no defiendan adecuadamente los intereses del Japón (como, por ejemplo, pedir cuentas sobre el caso de los ciudadanos japoneses raptados por Corea del Norte hace años.) Otras cuestiones se refieren a la base de infantería de marina de Okinawa y el reparto de los costos del traslado de parte de sus efectivos a Guam. Se trata de una lista larga, pero la mejor forma de concebir esas cuestiones es la de considerarlas “domésticas”: no son pocas las parejas que pueden discutir sobre ellas sin pensar en divorciarse.

Sin embargo, existe un nivel más profundo de descontento, relacionado con el temor del Japón a quedar marginado a medida que los EE.UU. se vuelven hacia una China en ascenso. Por ejemplo, algunos japoneses se quejan de que China recibe mucha más atención que el Japón en la campaña electoral americana. Semejante ansiedad no es de extrañar: las capacidades de defensa americanas y japonesas no son simétricas, lo que ha de inquietar por fuerza a la parte más dependiente.

A lo largo de los años, se han hecho diversas propuestas con vistas a volver mas simétrica la alianza, incluida la conversión del Japón en un país “normal” con toda una panoplia de capacidades militares, incluidas las armas nucleares, pero semejantes medidas plantearían más problemas de los que resolverían. Aun cuando el Japón las aplicara, seguirían sin igualar la capacidad de los EE.UU. ni eliminar la asimetría. Vale la pena observar que durante la Guerra Fría los aliados europeos de los Estados Unidos, pese a sus capacidades militares, tuvieron preocupaciones similares sobre su dependencia y posible abandono.

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