Skip to main content

Economics

新兴市场前路坎坷

Aug 31, 2013 Laura Tyson

伯克利—在过去十年中的大部分时间里，新兴市场一直是全球投资者的宠儿。即使是古板的退休基金和主权财富基金，也不断地把更多的资金配置于新兴市场资产。

但是，最近资本流向新兴市场的大环境发生了剧烈恶化。增长放缓和政策失误与美联储将开始通过减弱其“量化宽松”（QE，或无限额购买长期资产）收紧货币政策一起，使新兴经济体遭遇了深刻的货币、债券和股票卖出潮。

哪里出了问题？如许多分析师所言，我们正在经历又一场经济泡沫的破裂吗？

To continue reading, register now.

Subscribe now for unlimited access to everything PS has to offer.

As a registered user, you can enjoy more PS content every month – for free.

Already have an account? Log in

General-Onsite_Digital_1333x1000

Subscribe to PS Digital

Access every new PS commentary, our entire On Point suite of subscriber-exclusive content – including Longer Reads, Insider Interviews, Big Picture/Big Question, and Say More – and the full PS archive.

new comment has been posted. new comments have been posted.

0 Comments on this paragraph, 2 Comments on this article

Murat ASLAN Sep 8, 2013

İt is known that Turkey has growth three times in last decade and while growing up economic datas were observed carefully.

As you can see in Turkish Central Bank datas, reserves has reached up to $ 130 billion meanwhile Turkey's budget deficit ,for 7 mounth in 2013, is +4 million turkish liras this means Turkey has not budget deficit. Moreover when the datas were compared for the financial market, induviduals have $100 billion debt but they also have $127 billion receivable for short term.

Now, how could you describe Turkey as a "most vulnerable" one ? In addition debt/GDP is about %36 in Turkey, it has the lower rates among the european states how they could be the safe one and Turkey not ? I see emerging economies has affected negatively but the lost of value for liras is %9-10 which every country might witness this kind of situation according to FED's important statements.

I don't agree with your argument because the datas for Turkey seems not well-examined. According to Morgan Stanley Turkey had to make decisions with IMF policymakers because Turkey's intellectual capability was stay away from suffice. But now Turkey will give $5 billion debt to IMF. How would you describe this ?

I tend to believe that economy has enormous components and political decisions is the one of the most effective policies among them and Turkey use this very well, please consider this.
A new reply to this comment has been posted.
J. Bradford DeLong Aug 31, 2013

A very nice piece about typhoon season for emerging market economies...

With increasing signs the North Atlantic central banks will tighten over the next several years, forward-looking financial markets are incorporating that tightening into their pricing of emerging-market assets today.

This means emerging-market central banks have three options:

First, they can tighten even before North Atlantic central banks do in order to maintain their currencies in their expected ranges, but at the cost of chilling production and employment in their economies.

Second, they can maintain their current monetary policy and so let their currencies fall to levels at which the next expected bound is upward, thus worsening their terms of trade but boosting their exports and thus production and employment.

Third, they can split the difference, raising interest rates enough but no more so that the decline in the currency value is small enough that the boost in exports neatly offsets the decline in domestic interest-sensitive spending and the economy becomes not too cold or too hot but just right.

So why are there problems? Why isn't this third option--maintaining full but not overfull employment by shifting resources out of interest-sensitive investment and wealth-based consumption-producing sectors and into exports a no-brainer?

The fear for India and elsewhere appears to be the expectations of future nominal currency values vis-à-vis the dollar are not well-anchored. Thus letting the rupee drop now does not restore confidence by making foreign exchange specullators expect the next bounce of the rupee will be upward in value. Rather, it destroys confidence by leading them to expect the unleashing of a domestic exchange-rate inflationary spiral Rakasha Rakshasha.

The fear is, as Rudy Dornbush used to put it, that India and other emerging markets are right now not North Atlantic but rather South American economies.

I do not envy Raghu Rajan his current job at all…
A new reply to this comment has been posted.

https://prosyn.org/ptmJjjQzh

New Comment

Pin comment to this paragraph

After posting your comment, you’ll have a ten-minute window to make any edits. Please note that we moderate comments to ensure the conversation remains topically relevant. We appreciate well-informed comments and welcome your criticism and insight. Please be civil and avoid name-calling and ad hominem remarks.

Please select an option

Cancel

Send

Log in/Register

Email required

Password required Remember me?

or

Sign in with