La ricetta del piano Brady

BERKELEY – I mercati finanziari sono sempre più sicuri dell’imminenza di una ristrutturazione del debito greco con gran timore dei policymaker europei che temono il peggio. “Nel caso peggiore”, come ha affermato Juergen Stark membro della Banca Centrale Europea, “un’eventuale ristrutturazione del debito di un paese membro dell’eurozona potrebbe addirittura superare le conseguenze della bancarotta della Lehman”.

Ma c’è anche uno scenario migliore, ovvero quello in cui il processo di ristrutturazione del debito greco avviene in modo tale da non minacciare il sistema bancario.

Il modo più semplice per impiegare lo scenario migliore implicherebbe richiedere alle banche esposte al debito dei paesi del sud dell’Europa di aumentare il capitale. Il secondo round di stress test portato avanti dall’Autorità bancaria europea sembra mirare proprio a questo. Mostrando chi è forte e chi è debole, degli stress test portati avanti in modo efficace limiterebbero anche i rischi delle controparti. I prestatori disporrebbero di informazioni adeguate sulle aziende con cui fare business e su quelle da evitare.

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