Фискальный обрыв и внешняя политика США

ПРИНСТОН – Мир должен быть обеспокоен. Возможность того, что президент США Барак Обама и республиканцы в конгрессе не смогут достичь компромисса до принудительного глубокого сокращения государственных расходов и повышения налогов, которые вступят в силу с 1 января, вполне реальна. Глобальные рынки прекрасно знают о возможности падения США с «финансового обрыва» и нервно наблюдают. Они понимают, что последствия этого вполне могут снова сбросить США ‑ а с ними и весь мир ‑ в рецессию.

Министерства иностранных дел во всем мире должны нервничать не меньше. До тех пор пока США не приведут свои финансы в порядок, они будут вынуждены отказаться от своей руководящей роли в широком круге важнейших глобальных вопросов.

В краткосрочной перспективе, Сирия и ее соседи уже расплачиваются за неспособность Америки сосредоточиться на чем-то еще помимо своей внутренней политики после переизбрания Обамы. На мой взгляд, сирийский кризис подошел к переломному моменту: поскольку на данный момент совершенно очевидно, что оппозиция в конечном итоге одержит верх и президент Башар аль-Асад падет, продолжительность этого эндшпиля будет ключевым моментом в том, кто и на каких условиях придет к власти.

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