Mark Weber


巴黎 ——

2040 年或 2050 年的人口学家是否会像曾提到 白人的负担 的历史学家那样,用 白人的寂寞 来描述某些欧洲国家所谓的 帝国责任 呢?

严格地说,人口学并非一门科学学科。从马尔萨斯( Malthus )到 罗马俱乐部 Club of Rome ),无数耸人听闻的预言最后都以谬论收场。但是,《外交》( Foreign Affairs )杂志最近发表的一篇文章却有力地指出,一种人口学和经济学的双重趋势正在成型,将在本世纪中叶之前形成重大转变。到时,西方所占全球人口比例仅为 12% ,而欧洲则下降到 6% 。(欧洲人口在二战爆发前 1 年的 1913 年仍略胜中国。)经济方面,西方将约占全球总产量的 30%—— 该比例与其 18 世纪份额相当,远低于 1950 68% 的水平。

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