La caída del dólar

CAMBRIDGE – Cuando el valor del euro llegó a un nivel histórico de 1.52 dólares, Jean-Claude Trichet, el presidente del Banco Central Europeo, declaró a la prensa que le preocupaba su rápida apreciación y que deseaba “subrayar” la política oficial del Tesoro de Estados Unidos de apoyar un dólar fuerte. Posteriormente, varios ministros de finanzas europeos hicieron declaraciones similares.

En realidad, naturalmente, Estados Unidos no tiene una política para el dólar –además de permitir que el mercado determine su valor. El gobierno estadounidense no interviene en el mercado de divisas para apoyar al dólar, y la política monetaria de la Reserva Federal ciertamente no está encaminada hacia ese objetivo. La Reserva Federal tampoco busca disminuir el valor del dólar. Si bien el recorte de la tasa de interés de los fondos federales del 5.25% en el verano de 2007 al 3% actualmente contribuye a la depreciación del dólar, el objetivo ha sido el de estimular una economía que se debilita.

Sin embargo, todos los secretarios del Tesoro de Estados Unidos desde al menos Robert Rubin en la administración Clinton han repetido el mantra de que “un dólar fuerte es bueno para Estados Unidos” cuando se les pregunta sobre el valor del dólar. Pero aunque esto parece ser una mejor respuesta que “sin comentarios”, no dice mucho sobre el curso de las acciones actuales y futuras del gobierno estadounidense.

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