Le signal d’alarme de la roupie indienne

PRINCETON – La roupie indienne a rapidement perdu de sa valeur au cours des derniers mois, le taux de change par rapport au dollar américain ayant diminué de 11%, soit environ 60 roupies pour 1 dollar, depuis le début du mois de mai. La monnaie nationale constituant un symbole de la puissance économique de l’Inde, les conséquences du déclin de la roupie s’étendent au-delà des tensions et inquiétudes habituelles dans ce genre de situation, à l’intérieur du pays comme à l’étranger.

Il y a en effet des raisons de s’inquiéter, des raisons qui ne sont cependant pas uniquement liées à la perte de valeur de la roupie. En réalité, le déclin était à prévoir depuis un certain temps, et la récente incertitude des marchés n’en constitue que le signal d’alarme.

La véritable inquiétude réside dans le fait que l’Inde a perdu sa compétitivité internationale, et n’a fait que gagner du temps en empruntant auprès de multiples prêteurs. La dynamique de croissance est désormais au point mort, et, face à une inflation constamment élevée, les producteurs indiens peinent à rivaliser sur les marchés mondiaux. Le déficit de la balance courante ne cesse d’augmenter, en raison du creusement du déficit commercial (qui s’élève actuellement à 13% du PIB), soulevant le danger d’une crise de la balance des paiements.

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