Dean Rohrer

Die Eurozone am Scheideweg

BUENOS AIRES: In letzter Zeit haben viele Beobachter die Schuldenkrise der Eurozone für praktisch gelöst oder zumindest für einige Jahre aufgeschoben erklärt. Die sinkenden Erträge bei den letzten Anleiheauktionen der italienischen Regierung in 2011 deuteten auf eine deutliche Verringerung des wahrgenommenen staatlichen Ausfallrisikos hin. Und da italienische Anleihen als Hauptindikator der Krise betrachtet werden, sehen viele dies als Signal an, dass sich der europäische Schuldenmarkt normalisiert.

Die „Lösung“ der Krise wurde der Annahme nach durch die Entscheidung der Europäischen Zentralbank erleichtert, den Handelsbanken für drei Jahre Geld in unbegrenzter Höhe zu sehr niedrigen Zinsen zu leihen. Doch eine Notenbank würde normalerweise noch mehr tun, als ihre Rolle als Kreditgeber letzter Instanz zu erfüllen. Warum also all dieser neuerliche Optimismus?

Die unmittelbare Antwort darauf ist, dass die nationalen Banken das Programm jetzt nutzen werden, um billige Kredite bei der EZB aufzunehmen und in kurzfristige Staatsanleihen zu investieren, wobei sie die Zinsspanne für einen gewinnträchtigen „Carry Trade“ mit Staatsanleihen nutzen. Trotz der Ineffizienzen und Verzerrungen, die sich aus einer derartigen monetären Finanzierung ergeben, könnte die EZB den Regierungen so tatsächlich eine Atempause verschaffen.

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