Economics

Evropské důsledky německých voleb

Sep 16, 2013 Kemal Derviş

ISTANBUL – Téměř před sto lety, v roce 1919, analyzoval John Maynard Keynes ekonomické důsledky míru uzavřeného po porážce Německa v první světové válce. Důsledky německých parlamentních voleb plánovaných na 22. září jistě nebudou zdaleka tak zásadní. Přesto jejich výsledek nebude tak nepodstatný, jak dnes většina analytiků tvrdí.

Za prvé platí, že pokud příští vládu sestaví současná koalice Křesťanskodemokratické unie (CDU) a Svobodné demokratické strany (FDP), mohla by kancléřka Angela Merkelová činit dlouhodobější a odvážnější rozhodnutí bez obav z bezprostředních dopadů na volební preference. Mohla by pak prosazovat dvouletý nebo tříletý program namísto současné čtyřtýdenní strategie.

Povolební agenda Merkelové možná bude dál velmi opatrná a bude klást důraz na střednědobou fiskální konsolidaci Německa i celé eurozóny na úkor podpory zaměstnanosti a růstu. Opětovně zvolená Merkelová by však bezpochyby byla ochotná pokračovat alespoň po malých krůčcích v budování evropské bankovní unie, včetně mechanismu řešení, jenž bude čerpat ze zdrojů celé eurozóny.

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0 Comments on this paragraph, 6 Comments on this article

Marco Cattaneo Sep 21, 2013

The Europe monetary system has to be thoroughly reformed. "More Europe" will never work, reintroducing monetary autonomy on a country by country basis is the only sensible way to go. http://bastaconleurocrisi.blogspot.it/2013/09/certificati-di-credito-fiscale-ccf.html
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Kir Komrik Sep 21, 2013

Thank you for this very important set of observations,

You wrote:
"The German election will not ... suddenly open the door to a federal Europe on the model of the United States, with large implicit fiscal transfers and highly centralized defense and foreign policies. But, at a minimum, the outcome is likely to speed up implementation of eurozone decisions that have already been made, leading to somewhat more expansionary economic policies in both Germany and the eurozone."

I find their lack of audacity disturbing. Europe, imho, and for its sake, should move to a true federal system yesterday. In particular, they need a Euro that is fully backed by rule of law, not the half-baked backing it has now. This is a key deficiency that needs fixing very quickly, imo. Monetary policy must be uniform and if for one then for all equitably. This kind of assumes a more central authority and role for the ECB as well.

The EU needs a stronger executive yesterday, imho. And it needs a fundamental law ratified by all the states because that is the core of the very meaning of rule of law. It all starts there, even if it is just parchment. What they have now won't pass for an articles of confederation, much less any real fundamental law.

I see serious risks for Europe the longer it continues down a path without these key innovations and related institutions, and I cannot stress that point enough. It is a durability issue. "Nations" moving in the kind of treacherous waters the EU is in right now, half-cooked, not done and sloppier by the minute, tend not to last long.

Finally, and imo, the financial crises cannot be competently managed until the EU reaches a truly federal form, particularly the advances in the monetary system I described.

- kk
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hari naidu Sep 17, 2013

Your assumptions are all false because 22 Sept will most likely produce a SPD Chancellor - without CDU (Merkel).

Then what?

BTW Berlin decision-makers during Euro crisis are on both sides of the aisles Libertarians!
- dalai guevara Sep 19, 2013
  
  choice, of course
  silly me
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- dalai guevara Sep 19, 2013
  
  hari, forgive me for assuming you are not a betting man, because if you were and you were putting your money where your mouth is, I would happily bet any amount of your choise that you are wrong.
  A new reply to this comment has been posted.
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Frank O'Callaghan Sep 16, 2013

the issue is not one of national redistribution from one country to another but of the gross enrichment of the few at the expense of the many that has happened over the past 30 to 40 years. Without reversing this inequality there is no solution.

Germany has benefited from the euro to a huge extent but is unwilling to carry it's costs. This is not surprising. The countries that have suffered from the euro were run in such a manner that those in control passed the benefits to their "friends" while indebting the state.

During this "crisis" the rich have become very rich and most others have or will become poor.
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