L’éternel Poutine

NEW YORK – Le seul vote qui compte pour les élections présidentielles de 2012 en Russie est désormais déclaré, et c’est Vladimir Poutine lui-même. Il redeviendra président de la Russie l’année prochaine.

Lorsque la nouvelle a été annoncée – en même temps que celle concernant le président actuel, Dmitri Medvedev, qui s’effacera pour devenir le Premier ministre de Poutine – j’ai voulu hurler : Je vous l’avais dit. La naïveté des analystes, en Russie comme à l’étranger, qui pensaient que Poutine n’oserait jamais tourner en dérision le système électoral de la Russie en récupérant la présidence, m’a toujours rendue perplexe. Mais depuis qu’il est arrivé de Saint Petersburg au  Kremlin il y a vingt ans, mépriser la démocratie est une habitude chez Poutine.

Quiconque a pu penser que les choses seraient différentes est en plein délire ou ignore tout de la Russie. Poutine ne peut pas s’en empêcher, tout comme il n’a pas pu s’en empêcher en 2004. Leader populaire à l’époque – ayant redoré le statut de la Russie en tant que puissance globale par une habile utilisation du contrôle du pays sur une large part des réserves mondiales de pétrole et de gaz dont la disponibilité était alors limitée  – il aurait gagné haut la main. Il a pourtant malgré tout manipulé ces élections : dans la tradition du KGB, les individus sont simplement trop imprévisibles pour être laissé sans contrôle.

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