Margaret Scott

Melancolía en el mercado de bonos de los Estados Unidos

PEKÍN – El mercado de los bonos del Tesoro de los Estados Unidos es uno de los mercados de deuda más grandes y más activos del mundo, ya que proporciona a los inversores una reserva segura de valores y un flujo de ingresos confiable y al mismo tiempo ayuda a reducir los costos del servicio de la deuda del gobierno de los EE.UU. Sin embargo, según el Departamento del Tesoro de los EE.UU., los inversionistas extranjeros vendieron una cifra récord de 54,5 mil millones de dólares en deuda a largo plazo de los EE.UU. durante el mes de abril de este año; esta cifra incluye el recorte de inversiones de China en una suma de 5,4 mil millones de dólares. Este “dumping” o desinversión rápida relativa a la deuda pública de los EE.UU. por parte de inversores extranjeros anuncia el fin de una era de financiamiento barato para los EE.UU.

La situación actual muestra que el gobierno de los EE.UU. tiene en su poder aproximadamente el 40% de su deuda a través de la Reserva Federal y las agencias gubernamentales como el Fondo Fiduciario de la Seguridad Social, mientras que los inversores estadounidenses así como los inversores extranjeros tienen en su poder un 30% cada uno. Las economías emergentes –muchas de las cuales utilizan grandes excedentes comerciales para impulsar el crecimiento del PIB y complementar sus reservas en moneda extranjera con las entradas de capital resultantes– están a la cabeza de los compradores de deuda de los EE.UU.

Durante la última década, las reservas en moneda extranjera de estos países han aumentado de 750 mil millones de dólares a 6,3 millones de millones de dólares –más del 50% del total mundial– proporcionando una importante fuente de financiamiento que ha suprimido eficazmente los costos por intereses a largo plazo de los EE.UU. Con los rendimientos sobre los bonos a diez años de los EE.UU. cayendo en un 45% por año, en promedio, de 2000 a 2012, los EE.UU. pudieron financiar su deuda en términos excepcionalmente favorables.

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