银行的末日?

巴塞罗那—目前的金融危机会导致银行的末日么?按揭的证券化起初曾被视为一项成就,因为它将风险转移到金融市场,而吸纳存款和发放及监控贷款—传统银行的业务范围—则被认为是狭窄而老派的。相较之下,现代银行主要通过银行间市场和贷款组合证券化的方式融资。

从理论上讲,这样的银行不会出现挤兑,因为银行间市场应该极为高效,而风险会被转移到愿意承担的投资者那里。存款会被共同基金取代,而后者如我们所知,也不会出现挤兑。结构性投资工具(SIV) 会被评级机构精确评估。所有这些金融设计都能够规避束缚银行经营的、过时的资本要求。

目前的危机让这种乐观的情况不复存在。银行间市场几乎已经崩溃,因为银行之间彼此不再信任,就如同我们不太会相信一个急于将二手车脱手的卖家一样。

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