“新中东”浮出水面

布什总统的中东政策毫无疑问地实现了一件事:它已经彻底地破坏了该地区的稳定。否则,这种结果也完全不是美国所希望达到的。一个民主、亲西方中东不是美国想出的牌。

然而,尽管事情没有朝着美国新保守主义者希望的方向发展,但也毕竟在发展之中。那场名为伊拉克战争的历史性失败、世俗阿拉伯国家主义的终结和高涨的石油和天然气价格给该地区带来了深远的变化。从大马士革到迪拜,从特拉维夫到德黑兰,一个新的中东正在出现。

旧的中东建立在欧洲列强在1918年土耳其帝国崩溃以后所创建的边界和政治认同之上。为它提供驱动力的意识形态力量是受到欧洲启发的世俗国家主义,企图通过自上而下的政府行动实现政治和社会的现代化。这种国家主义,或“阿拉伯社会主义”在冷战中到达了顶点。当时它可以依赖苏联的军事、政治和经济支持。

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