Le dodici tecnologie dirompenti

SAN FRANCISCO – La storia è ricca di tecnologie acclamate come la nuova grande innovazione. Ciò può diventare irritante per i consumatori quando si rendono conto di aver buttato via i soldi ad esempio comprando un impianto stereo quadrofonico. Ma quando sono le aziende a scommettere sulle tecnologie sbagliate, allora le conseguenze possono essere addirittura devastanti per loro.

Alla fine degli anni ’90 si credeva, ad esempio, che gli scambi B2B sarebbero diventati l’applicazione decisiva per il commercio, mentre si è arrivati a crearne solo 1.500. Molti di questi sono poi scomparsi bruciando miliardi di dollari di investimenti.

Per ridurre il martellamento pubblicitario legato all’arrivo di quasi tutte le nuove tecnologie, il McKinsey Global Institute ha esaminato più di 100 tecnologie in rapido sviluppo e ne ha individuate 12 in grado, quasi sicuramente, di cambiare lo status quo nei prossimi anni. L’MGI prevede che l’impatto economico combinato annuale di questa “dozzina di tecnologie dirompenti” (che spaziano dall’informatica, alle apparecchiature e ai veicoli, all’energia, alla bioscienza e ai materiali) arriverà a 14-33 trilioni di dollari entro il 2025. Gran parte del valore (e in molti casi, una maggioranza consistente), sarà molto probabilmente destinata ai consumatori.

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