破坏性十二

旧金山—在历史上,有很多技术曾被称为下一个热门。让消费者烦恼的则是在买了(比如)四声道立体声后发现自己纯粹是在浪费钱。但当公司押注于错误的技术时,造成的后果可能会毁了它们。

比如,1990年代末,认为B2B交易会成为商业的“杀手应用”的观念催生了1 500余种B2B交易形式。后来,绝大部分都消失了,数十亿美元的投资也随之东流。

为了让你快速领略围绕在几乎所有新技术周围的热烈情绪,麦肯锡全球研究所(MGI)考察了100余项快速演变的技术,并从中提炼出12项几乎肯定会在未来几年中改变现状的技术。MGI估计,到2025年,这些“破坏十二”(disruptive dozen,范围涵盖了信息技术、机械和汽车、能源、生物科学以及材料等)每年的经济影响加起来可达14—33万亿美元。这些价值中的大部分——在许多情形中,是绝大部分——都将由消费者得到。

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