Economics

الدزينة المزعجة

Sep 4, 2013 Erik Brynjolfsson , Andrew McAfee, and James Manyika

سان فرانسيسكو- ان التاريخ مليء بالتقنيات والتي تمت الاشادة بها في يوم من الايام على انها الشيء العظيم القادم . ان هذا يمكن ان يكون مزعجا للمستهلكين عندما يدركون ان بعض تلك التقنيات مثل ستيريو الكادروفونيك والذي اشتروه هو في الواقع مضيعه للاموال ولكن عندما تراهن الشركات على التقنيات الخطأ تكون العواقب وخيمة بالنسبة لها.

على سبيل المثال ففي اواخر التسعينات فإن الاعتقاد بان التبادلات التجارية بي 2 بي سوف تكون التطبيق الانجح للتجاره نتج عنه تأسيس اكثر من 1500 منها ولقد اختفت معظمها مخلفة خسارة تقدر ببلايين الدولات .

للمساعدة في تخطي الضجة التي عادة ما تصاحب معظم التقنيات الجديدة قام معهد ماكنزي الدولي بفحص اكثر من 100 تقنيه تتطور سريعا حيث تعرف على 12 من شبه المؤكد ان تغير الوضع القائم في السنوات القدمة ويقدر معهد ماكنزي الدولي ان التأثير الاقتصادي السنوي المشترك لهذه " الدزينة المزعجة" والتي تشمل تقنية المعلومات والالات والمركبات والطاقة والعلوم البيولوجية والمواد سوف يصل الى 14-33 تريليون دولار امريكي بحلول سنة 2025. ان من المرجح ان يستفيد المستهلكين من معظم هذه القيمة – في غالبية الحالات- .

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Nathan Coppedge Dec 8, 2013

Both in the article, and in Laventurier's comments, I find seedlings of the idea that citizenship has a lot to do with these issues. For example, the concept of modular citizenship: the cheap, valuable, equipped, mobile citizens of the future plug into technologies and exploit them. In fantastic terms, these might be like Silicon Valley start-ups that only require QOL benefits for compensation. Some of this is being realized already with crowd-sourcing (a word that I think has become taboo in the upper circles, because it is an unstated dependence. Or I could be wrong. Perhaps it is still being under-used). There is probably a sense of information overload hitting the upper levels, as a lapse transpires between consumer-creations and consumer-applications. Yet, this is still the vital juice of things to come. As usual, little secrets add up to a new mythology or role-playing game of possibilities.

One key will be to standardize the available integral circuit (metaphorically, the interface between the citizen and the future social platform such as architecture and other environments), so that new technologies appear like visions from the future, that automatically integrate to some degree with other emergent technologies. The recent failure of this trend or possibility is felt in the relatively slow or non-integrated emergence of the self-printing industry. Yet it has the common element of modular parts. I'll tell you what I think about modular parts: we need more permanent, more perfect technology, and we need more virtual consumption. The only way to do this is to improve the physical, technical infrastructure, and to more greatly perfect information.

There are several jumping off points for ideas of the future, and they are not all recent. For example, architecture has responded to concepts of futurism for at least 100 years, although it has not always responded to hand-held technologies, it has certainly responded to technological meaning. Many new technological ideas can be traced backwards to basic, emergent concepts in architecture, although sometimes the architecture that it comes from is already a figure of the past.

For example, we will ultimately depend on the kind of ornateness that exists in Gothic cathedrals, and the Alhambra. But these are no longer the form of architecture. Therefore, we make the mistake of distancing ourselves from its significance. However, more recent architecture is even more prescient and subtle. Modular concrete emerged relatively recently and is still considered prohibitively expensive for small budgets. Modularity is a brilliant technical concept that can be applied to information, organization, and planning. It is just as important as hieratics and historical indexing.

Even without new political concepts, people reach out for a new idea. The first instinct is to declare that old ideas are dead and new ideas are uninteresting. Then they rely on concepts of stimulation, 'sex appeal' to grant meaning to reality. But another approach is to reach from concepts of reality, leaving stimulation as an incidental feature which is only a function of mental concepts---a projection which can be fitted cheaply to any passing taste, to the most nonchalant, inscrutable instances. Images must be made cheap, someone famous said. But that is just the spicy surface of the future economy. The interior has to do with how to realize reality. And it has to do with the relations of concepts like historical indexing, hierarchies, and modularity, combined with the most imaginative applications the heart could desire. These applications are the boundary between that ultimate reality ('god', 'society', 'materialism') and the emergent tangible image. The easiest thing to do is to look at recent or ancient styles of architecture, and decide, 'how does it fit into the program'? After all, these are already real, tangible, living metaphors that have been accepted, and manifest, for generations. Then apply it to all known styles of art, and to the granted preferred modalities of the most cultured citizens according to genetics or current science. Then apply it to the emergent cusp of art, science, and information. And at that point, information will be gratifying, and people will accept that one of the virtues of society is living in the future, that compartment, that aperture of the childish philosopher, where lightning strikes and the fundamental codification takes place.
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Marc Laventurier Sep 7, 2013

The third of A.C. Clarke's 'laws of prediction', found in his essay, "Hazards of Prophecy: The Failure of Imagination", is familiar: "Any sufficiently advanced technology is indistinguishable from magic."

Wall Street may come to find that a fully realized social graph is indistinguishable from socialism.
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