Il costo economico della paura

BERKELEY – L’indice di borsa della S&P ha attualmente un rendimento del 7% (al netto dell’inflazione). Il tasso reale dell’interesse annuale dei Titoli protetti dall’Inflazione del Tesoro statunitense su base quinquennale è invece pari a -1,02%. Ebbene sì, c’è il segno meno davanti alla percentuale, e infatti, se si acquista il TIPS quinquennale su base annuale per i prossimi cinque anni, il Tesoro statunitense pagherà, sotto forma di interessi, il tasso di inflazione dei prezzi al consumo dell’anno precedente pari a -1,02%. Anche il tasso reale d’interesse annuale sul TIPS trentennale è pari solo allo 0,63%, e c’è inoltre il rischio di un’ulteriore riduzione del suo valore nel corso della prossima generazione con una probabile perdita ingente nel caso di vendita dei titoli prima della maturazione degli interessi.

Immaginate di investire 10.000 dollari nell’indice S&P. Nel corso di quest’anno, la vostra quota di profitto derivante da quelle aziende sarebbe pari a 700 dollari. Immaginate ora che, rispetto alla somma totale, le aziende vi paghino 250 dollari in dividendi (che potreste poi reinvestire per comprare altro capitale azionario) e mantengano invece 450 dollari come rendimento da reinvestire nei loro business. Se i manager delle aziende facessero bene il loro lavoro, il reinvestimento aumenterebbe il valore delle vostre quote fino a 10.450 dollari. Aggiungendo poi i 250 dollari delle nuove azioni acquistate, il portafoglio dell’anno successivo risulterebbe pari a 10.700 dollari (di più se le valutazioni della borsa aumentano, di meno se invece diminuiscono).

In periodi di tempo abbastanza lunghi da permettere un controbilanciamento tra onde di ottimismo e pessimismo, il tasso di rendita media sull’indice S&P è sempre stato un ottimo indicatore del profitto sul portafoglio. Pertanto, se si investissero 10.000 dollari nell’indice S&P per i prossimi cinque anni, ci si potrebbe aspettare con ragionevolezza (considerando comunque un ampio margine di rischio sia positivo che negativo) di ottenere il 7% circa su base annuale, con un profitto composto pari a 4.191 dollari al netto dell’inflazione. Se si dovessero invece investire 10.000 dollari nel TIPS quinquennale, ci si dovrebbe aspettare con certezza una perdita quinquennale pari a 510 dollari.

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