畏惧带来的经济代价

伯克利——标准普尔指数S&P股票指数今日得到了百分之七(通货膨胀调整后)实质性的回报。相比之下,美国五年通货膨胀保值国债(简称为TIPS)的实质性年利率为负1.03%。的确,在百分比之前有个“负号”,若你购买了五年制通胀保值国债,每一年美国财政部会以上一年消费者通胀率减去1.02%的利率给你支付利息。甚至30年TIPS的实质性年利率只是0.63%,它的价值会在下一年度有某种程度的减少而让你承受颇大的风险,暗示着若你在股票成熟前将其抛售将会面临巨大损失。

因此,假设你投资给S&P一万美元。这一年,那些涉及的公司给你的投资带来700美元利润。现在,想象一下在这总共的700美元当中,有250美元是由这些公司以股息(你用它来购入更多股票再作投资)的形式来支付,而剩下的450美元则由它们保留作为对它们企业的再投资。如果公司的经营者开展工作让公司继续运营,那么这一笔再投资就会让你所持股票的价值攀升到10450美元,在加上新购买的250美元股票,下一年度你的股票投资组合总值会是10700美元——若股市股价增高,总值随之增加,反之,总值减少。

事实上,在过去,积极因素与消极因素这两股浪潮经历了足够长的时间才相互抵消,度过了任何一个这样的时期,S&P指数的平均收入输出便会持续对投资组合的回报起着良好的引导作用。所以,如果你在下一个五年对S&P投资一万美元,你就有充分的理由期待着(冒着稍微正面的与反面的巨大风险)每一年得到约为7%的利润,这利润是经过通胀调整后4190美元的累积利润。若你把这一万美元投资给TIPS,你就铁定将会面临五年后510美元的损失。

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