Margaret Scott

Les conséquences économiques de Silvio Berlusconi

MILAN – Silvio Berlusconi a survécu à un vote de confiance, mais son gouvernement est pratiquement mort. Personne ne peut gouverner un pays avec une majorité aussi maigre. Pas longtemps.

La seule décision importante que ce gouvernement, le quatrième gouvernement de Berlusconi, se soit donné la peine de prendre fut une décision de ne pas décider. Il y a deux ans, lorsque la crise financière ébranla la planète, le choix de Berlusconi fut d’éviter toute intervention politique destinée à contrer la Grande Récession. Cela contribua à la chute de la production la plus importante de l’après-guerre en Italie, et un déclin cumulé de 6,5% du PIB. Parmi les pays de l’OCDE, seul le Japon fit pire.

De manière remarquable, la chute de la production en Italie fut deux fois plus importante qu’en France, un autre grand pays de l’OECD qui, comme l’Italie, avait évité les causes fondamentales de la crise : un boom (suivi par un effondrement) du marché immobilier et une importante crise bancaire. Le paradoxe est que l’inaction du gouvernement Berlusconi a en fait permis d’éviter une importante détérioration du déficit publique. Dans le contexte de la crise de la dette qui perturbe actuellement la zone euro, il est aisé de se rendre compte des avantages d’une politique d’inertie. La situation de l’Italie aurait pu être bien pire que ce qu’elle n’est aujourd’hui. 

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