Los dos pilares del BCE – un éxito

En octubre de 1998, justo antes de que arrancara la Unión Monetaria Europea, el Consejo de Gobierno del Banco Central Europeo adoptó una estrategia de política monetaria orientada a la estabilidad. Esta estrategia tiene tres elementos: en primer lugar contiene un claro compromiso con el objetivo principal del BCE, que es defender la estabilidad de los precios. La estabilidad de los precios se definió como un aumento anual en el nivel de precios de menos del dos por ciento a mediano plazo.

Los otros dos elementos, que pronto se hicieron famosos con el nombre de los “dos pilares”, sirven como medio de evaluar los riesgos que afronta la meta de la estabilidad de los precios . El pilar del análisis monetario abarca toda la información que proviene de varios agregados monetarios y de crédito y sirve para calcular los riesgos a la estabilidad de los precios a mediano y largo plazo . El pilar del análisis económico se basa en un amplio conjunto de indicadores económicos internos e internacionales provenientes de los sectores real y financiero (salarios, precios de importación, tasas de interés y tipos de cambio, etc.). Proporciona una base para evaluar la evolución de los precios a corto y mediano plazo .

Este enfoque de dos pilares constituye un marco para cotejar los indicadores del análisis económico a corto plazo con los del análisis monetario a largo plazo para obtener un panorama claro de los riesgos a la estabilidad de los precios.

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