Две опоры ЕЦБ – успех достигнут

В октябре 1998 года, незадолго до основания Европейского валютного союза, Руководящий совет Европейского Центрального банка (ЕЦБ) принял стратегию денежно-кредитной политики, ориентированную на стабильность. Эта стратегия состоит из трех элементов: во-первых, в ней заложена чёткая приверженность основной цели ЕЦБ, а именно, охране стабильности цен. Стабильность цен при этом определяется как повышение цен не более чем на два процента в год в среднесрочной перспективе.

Другие два элемента, которые вскоре приобрели известность как “две опоры”, служат средством оценки риска, связанного с целью обеспечения стабильности цен. Опора в виде валютного анализа охватывает все сводные денежные и кредитные показатели и служит для определения риска в отношении стабильности цен в среднесрочной и долгосрочной перспективе. Опора в виде экономического анализа основана на широком спектре внутренних и международных экономических показателей из реального и финансового секторов (зарплаты, цены на импорт, процентные ставки, курсы валют и т.д.). Она обеспечивает основу для оценки динамики цен в кратко- и среднесрочной перспективе .

Этот “принцип двух опор представляет собой основу для взаимопроверки результатов экономического анализа, рассчитанного на меньший срок, и валютного анализа, рассчитанного на более продолжительный период, с целью получить надежное представление о риске в отношении стабильности цен.

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