El triste y sombrío triunfo del economista

NUEVA YORK – Por largo tiempo he estado prediciendo que era sólo cuestión de tiempo antes de que estallara la burbuja inmobiliaria de Estados Unidos, que comenzó a principios de esta década apoyada en una gran liquidez y una normativa laxa. Mientras más creciera la burbuja, mayor sería la explosión y más profunda (y global) la desaceleración resultante.

Los economistas son buenos para identificar las fuerzas subyacentes, pero no tan aptos en hacerlo en el momento adecuado. Sin embargo, la dinámica corresponde bastante a lo previsto. Estados Unidos sigue en camino descendente hacia el año 2009, con serias consecuencias para el mundo como un todo.

Por ejemplo, a medida que sus ingresos por impuestos caen en picada, los gobiernos estatales y locales ser aprestan a reducir sus gastos. Las exportaciones estadounidenses están a punto de comenzar a disminuir. Como se esperaba, el gasto de los consumidores esta cayendo también. Ha habido una enorme reducción de la riqueza (percibida), en el orden de los billones de dólares, con la baja de los precios de las viviendas y las acciones. Además, la mayoría de los estadounidenses estaba viviendo más allá de sus medios, utilizando sus casas, con sus valores inflados, como garantía. El juego terminó.

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