O Estilo Paranóico em Economia

NOVA DELI – Porque se convertem tão depressa as discussões económicas de notoriedade elevada em ataques ad hominem? Talvez o exemplo recente mais difundido seja a campanha do laureado com o Nobel, Paul Krugman, contra os economistas Carmen Reinhart e Kenneth Rogoff, em que o primeiro passou rapidamente da crítica a um erro num dos artigos dos segundos, a acusações sobre o seu compromisso com a transparência académica.

Para quem conhece estes dois soberbos macroeconomistas internacionais, como eu conheço, é evidente que essas acusações deverão ser rapidamente ignoradas. Mas permanece a questão mais ampla de saber porque o estilo paranóico se tornou tão preponderante.

Uma parte da resposta advém de a economia ser uma ciência inexacta, com excepções para quase todos os padrões de comportamento que os economistas assumem como adquiridos. Por exemplo, os economistas predizem que preços mais altos de um bem reduzirão a sua procura. Mas os estudantes de economia sem dúvida que se lembrarão do seu encontro precoce com os “bens de Giffen”, que violam o padrão habitual. Quando as tortillas se tornam mais caras, um trabalhador Mexicano pobre poderá ter que aumentar o seu consumo, porque deverá diminuir o consumo de alimentos mais caros como a carne.

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