As US policy-makers desperately seek to stave off recession by slashing interest rates and enacting stimulus packages, a fundamental contradiction continues to be overlooked: since 1980, the US economy has relied upon asset price inflation and rising indebtedness, not wage income, to fuel consumer demand, investment, and output growth.
WASHINGTON, DC -- A second big American interest-rate cut in a fortnight, alongside an economic stimulus plan that united Republicans and Democrats, demonstrates that US policymakers are keen to head off a recession that looks like the consequence of rising mortgage defaults and falling home prices. But there is a deeper problem that has been overlooked: the US economy relies upon asset price inflation and rising indebtedness to fuel growth.
Therein lies a profound contradiction. On one hand, policy must fuel asset bubbles to keep the economy growing. On the other hand, such bubbles inevitably create financial crises when they eventually implode.
This is a contradiction with global implications. Many countries have relied for growth on US consumer spending and investments in outsourcing to supply those consumers. If America’s bubble economy is now tapped out, global growth will slow sharply. It is not clear that other countries have the will or capacity to develop alternative engines of growth.
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Rather than reducing concentrated market power through “disruption” or “creative destruction,” technological innovation historically has only added to the problem, by awarding monopolies to just one or a few dominant firms. And market forces offer no remedy to the problem; only public policy can provide that.
shows that technological change leads not to disruption, but to deeper, more enduring forms of market power.
The passing of America’s preeminent foreign-policy thinker and practitioner marks the end of an era. Throughout his long and extraordinarily influential career, Henry Kissinger built a legacy that Americans would be wise to heed in this new era of great-power politics and global disarray.
reviews the life and career of America’s preeminent foreign-policy scholar-practitioner.
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WASHINGTON, DC -- A second big American interest-rate cut in a fortnight, alongside an economic stimulus plan that united Republicans and Democrats, demonstrates that US policymakers are keen to head off a recession that looks like the consequence of rising mortgage defaults and falling home prices. But there is a deeper problem that has been overlooked: the US economy relies upon asset price inflation and rising indebtedness to fuel growth.
Therein lies a profound contradiction. On one hand, policy must fuel asset bubbles to keep the economy growing. On the other hand, such bubbles inevitably create financial crises when they eventually implode.
This is a contradiction with global implications. Many countries have relied for growth on US consumer spending and investments in outsourcing to supply those consumers. If America’s bubble economy is now tapped out, global growth will slow sharply. It is not clear that other countries have the will or capacity to develop alternative engines of growth.
To continue reading, register now.
Subscribe now for unlimited access to everything PS has to offer.
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