债务错觉

    华盛顿特区--美国在两周之内第二次大幅度降息,并且共和和民主两党团结一致达成经济刺激计划,这表明美国的决策者们想要避免一场经济衰退。这一衰退看起来就是房屋按揭贷款无力偿还不断上升以及住房价格下降的结果。但是人们还忽视了一个更为深刻的问题,那就是美国经济依赖于资产价格膨胀以及债务攀升来推动增长。

    这里存在一个深刻的矛盾。一方面,政策必须推动资产泡沫来维持经济增长。另一方面,这样的泡沫最终破灭之时不可避免地造成金融危机。

    这一矛盾影响全球。许多国家的经济增长一直依赖于美国消费以及外包投资来供应消费。如果美国的泡沫经济现在破灭,全球经济增长就会大幅度减缓。现在还不清楚其他国家是否有意志或者能力形成替代增长引擎。

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