死猫反弹

纽约——经济紧缩在美国、中国和世界其他地区放缓的温和迹象已经致使许多经济学家预测美国将在今年下半年恢复正增长,且其他先进经济体也会出现类似的恢复。经济学家间逐渐达成的共识是明年我们将看到接近2.5%的趋势增长率。

投资者正在谈论经济复苏的“绿色嫩芽”,以及正向的“经济行为的第二衍生物”(持续的经济紧缩是负向的第一衍生物,但其速度的不断减缓表明底部已经临近)。结果是美国和全世界的股市均开始回升。市场似乎相信受到巨大影响的企业和金融公司利润在历尽艰辛之后终会得到恢复。

我认为,这种一致的乐观情绪并没有事实的支撑。实际上,我预计尽管美国经济收缩的速度将比过去两个季度的-6%有所放缓,但今年下半年的美国经济增长(较之+2%的乐观估计)仍将维持在负数(约为-1.5到-2%)。此外,明年的经济增长仍将微弱(较之2%或者更高的普遍观点)、而失业率仍将高企(约为10%),以致于让我们感到仍然处在衰退之中。

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