Paul Lachine

El ascenso del renminbi

BEIJING – El 26 de octubre el tipo de cambio al contado del renminbi frente al dólar alcanzó el nivel superior de su banda de flotación por segundo día de operaciones consecutivo. El aumento empezó cuando la banda de cotización de la tasa de cambio del renminbi se amplió a ±1% y ahora ha llegado a un máximo histórico desde la reforma de la divisa en 1994. Sin señales de una mejoría de los fundamentos económicos, la rápida apreciación del renminbi es un acontecimiento potencialmente peligroso para China –debido en parte al riesgo de que se invierta la situación de forma abrupta y dolorosa.

El aumento del renminbi durante el último mes se puede atribuir a una mayor liquidez global que comenzó a principios del tercer trimestre, pues los responsables del diseño de políticas han respondido a la crisis de deuda soberana de la eurozona y al estancamiento de la producción. De hecho, de acuerdo con Morgan Stanley, las autoridades monetarias de 16 de los 33 países a los que da seguimiento  –incluidos siete de diez bancos centrales de países avanzados y nueve de veintitrés bancos centrales de mercados emergentes– han bajado sus tasas de  interés de referencia o reducido los requisitos de reservas.

Después de dos rondas de facilitación cuantitativa (QE, por sus siglas en inglés), las hojas de balance del Banco Central Europeo (BCE) y de la Reserva Federal estadounidense han incrementado a 3.2 billones de euros (4.1 billones de dólares) y 2.9 billones de dólares, respectivamente. El nuevo programa de operaciones monetarias simples del BCE en mercados secundarios de bonos soberanos y la “QE3” abierta de la Reserva continúan con esta tendencia, mientras que el Banco de Japón ha expandido su programa de compra de activos por octava vez.

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