Paul Lachine

El ascenso del renminbi

BEIJING – El 26 de octubre el tipo de cambio al contado del renminbi frente al dólar alcanzó el nivel superior de su banda de flotación por segundo día de operaciones consecutivo. El aumento empezó cuando la banda de cotización de la tasa de cambio del renminbi se amplió a ±1% y ahora ha llegado a un máximo histórico desde la reforma de la divisa en 1994. Sin señales de una mejoría de los fundamentos económicos, la rápida apreciación del renminbi es un acontecimiento potencialmente peligroso para China –debido en parte al riesgo de que se invierta la situación de forma abrupta y dolorosa.

El aumento del renminbi durante el último mes se puede atribuir a una mayor liquidez global que comenzó a principios del tercer trimestre, pues los responsables del diseño de políticas han respondido a la crisis de deuda soberana de la eurozona y al estancamiento de la producción. De hecho, de acuerdo con Morgan Stanley, las autoridades monetarias de 16 de los 33 países a los que da seguimiento  –incluidos siete de diez bancos centrales de países avanzados y nueve de veintitrés bancos centrales de mercados emergentes– han bajado sus tasas de  interés de referencia o reducido los requisitos de reservas.

Después de dos rondas de facilitación cuantitativa (QE, por sus siglas en inglés), las hojas de balance del Banco Central Europeo (BCE) y de la Reserva Federal estadounidense han incrementado a 3.2 billones de euros (4.1 billones de dólares) y 2.9 billones de dólares, respectivamente. El nuevo programa de operaciones monetarias simples del BCE en mercados secundarios de bonos soberanos y la “QE3” abierta de la Reserva continúan con esta tendencia, mientras que el Banco de Japón ha expandido su programa de compra de activos por octava vez.

To continue reading, please log in or enter your email address.

Registration is quick and easy and requires only your email address. If you already have an account with us, please log in. Or subscribe now for unlimited access.

required

Log in

http://prosyn.org/ouRKsoj/es;
  1. Chris J Ratcliffe/Getty Images

    The Brexit Surrender

    European Union leaders meeting in Brussels have given the go-ahead to talks with Britain on post-Brexit trade relations. But, as European Council President Donald Tusk has said, the most difficult challenge – forging a workable deal that secures broad political support on both sides – still lies ahead.

  2. The Great US Tax Debate

    ROBERT J. BARRO vs. JASON FURMAN & LAWRENCE H. SUMMERS on the impact of the GOP tax  overhaul.


    • Congressional Republicans are finalizing a tax-reform package that will reshape the business environment by lowering the corporate-tax rate and overhauling deductions. 

    • But will the plan's far-reaching changes provide the boost to investment and growth that its backers promise?


    ROBERT J. BARRO | How US Corporate Tax Reform Will Boost Growth

    JASON FURMAN & LAWRENCE H. SUMMERS | Robert Barro's Tax Reform Advocacy: A Response

  3. Murdoch's Last Stand?

    Rupert Murdoch’s sale of 21st Century Fox’s entertainment assets to Disney for $66 billion may mark the end of the media mogul’s career, which will long be remembered for its corrosive effect on democratic discourse on both sides of the Atlantic. 

    From enabling the rise of Donald Trump to hacking the telephone of a murdered British schoolgirl, Murdoch’s media empire has staked its success on stoking populist rage.

  4. Bank of England Leon Neal/Getty Images

    The Dangerous Delusion of Price Stability

    Since the hyperinflation of the 1970s, which central banks were right to combat by whatever means necessary, maintaining positive but low inflation has become a monetary-policy obsession. But, because the world economy has changed dramatically since then, central bankers have started to miss the monetary-policy forest for the trees.

  5. Harvard’s Jeffrey Frankel Measures the GOP’s Tax Plan

    Jeffrey Frankel, a professor at Harvard University’s Kennedy School of Government and a former member of President Bill Clinton’s Council of Economic Advisers, outlines the five criteria he uses to judge the efficacy of tax reform efforts. And in his view, the US Republicans’ most recent offering fails miserably.

  6. A box containing viles of human embryonic Stem Cell cultures Sandy Huffaker/Getty Images

    The Holy Grail of Genetic Engineering

    CRISPR-Cas – a gene-editing technique that is far more precise and efficient than any that has come before it – is poised to change the world. But ensuring that those changes are positive – helping to fight tumors and mosquito-borne illnesses, for example – will require scientists to apply the utmost caution.

  7. The Year Ahead 2018

    The world’s leading thinkers and policymakers examine what’s come apart in the past year, and anticipate what will define the year ahead.

    Order now