Paul Lachine

Il rialzo de Renminbi

BEIJING – Il 26 ottobre, il tasso di cambio a pronti del renminbi rispetto al dollaro USA ha raggiunto il limite massimo del suo campo di oscillazione per il secondo giorno consecutivo di negoziazione. Il rialzo ha avuto inizio quando la fascia di oscillazione del tasso di cambio del renminbi rispetto al dollaro è stata ampliata a ±1%, ed ha raggiunto il livello più alto dalla riforma valutaria del 1994. In un momento in cui sono presenti pochi segnali di miglioramento dei fondamentali economici, il rapido apprezzamento della valuta rappresenta uno sviluppo potenzialmente pericoloso per la Cina – in parte a causa del rischio di un’inversione brusca e dolorosa.

L’aumento del renminbi del mese scorso può essere attribuito ad una maggiore liquidità globale presente a partire dall’inizio del terzo trimestre, poiché i politici hanno dato una risposta alla crisi del debito sovrano ed alla produzione stagnante dell’eurozona. Infatti, secondo Morgan Stanley, le autorità monetarie di 16 dei 33 paesi sotto osservazione –comprese sette delle dieci banche centrali dei paesi avanzati e nove delle 23 banche centrali di mercati emergenti - hanno tagliato i loro tassi di interesse di riferimento, oppure hanno abbassato gli obblighi di riserva.

Dopo due cicli di alleggerimento quantitativo (quantitative easing – QE), i bilanci della Banca Centrale Europea e della Federal Reserve degli Stati Uniti sono cresciuti rispettivamente di 3.2 mila miliardi di euro (4.1 mila miliardi di dollari) e di 2.9 mila miliardi di dollari. Il nuovo programma di operazioni monetarie definitive (outright monetary transactions - OMT) della BCE sui mercati secondari dei titoli sovrani, e l’ “open-ended QE3” della Fed , un piano di allentamento quantitativo a tempo indeterminato, portano avanti questa tendenza, mentre la Banca del Giappone ha ampliato il proprio programma di acquisto di titoli per l’ottava volta.

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