Paul Lachine

La montée du Renminbi

PEKIN – Le 26 octobre, le taux de change au comptant du renminbi par rapport au dollar a atteint la limite supérieure de sa marge de fluctuation pendant deux jours consécutifs. La hausse a débuté alors que la fourchette de change entre le renminbi et le dollar avait été élargie à ±1%, et a maintenant atteint un record sans précédent depuis la réforme monétaire de 1994. Dans la mesure où il y a peu de signes d’une amélioration des fondamentaux économiques, l’appréciation rapide d’une monnaie est un développement potentiellement dangereux pour la Chine – en partie du au risque d’un renversement abrupt et douloureux de la tendance.

La hausse du renminbi au cours du mois écoulé peut être attribué à de plus importantes liquidités globales depuis le début du troisième trimestre, alors que les responsables politiques réagissaient à la crise de la dette souveraine et à la production apathique de l’Europe. En effet, selon Morgan Stanley, les autorités monétaires dans 16 des 33 pays suivis – dont sept des dix banques centrales des pays avancés et neuf des 23 banques centrales des pays émergeants – ont baissé leur taux de référence de base ou diminué les exigences de réserves.

Après deux séries de facilités quantitatives (FQ), les bilans de la Banque Centrale Européenne et de la Réserve Fédérale américaine ont respectivement atteints 3,2 billions d’euros (4,1 billions de dollars) et 2,9 billions de dollars. Le nouveau programme de transactions monétaires fermes de la BCE sur les marchés obligataires souverains secondaires et la FQ3 à durée indéterminée de la Fed persévèrent dans cette ligne, tandis que la Banque du Japon a élargi son programme d’achat d’actifs pour la huitième fois.

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