Paul Lachine

人民币的大幅升值

发自北京——人民币兑美元即期汇率26日连续第二个交易日触及日浮动区间上限,这不仅是人民币扩大浮动汇率期间至1%以后的连续涨停,也是1994年人民币汇率改革以来的最高纪录,然而,在中国经济基本面并出现太大改观之下,人民币如此凌厉的升势的确需要保持警惕——这可能导致一场剧烈而又痛苦的逆转。

人民币近一个月以来的持续走高与全球流动性宽松的大背景相关,三季度以来,面对着持续恶化的主权债务局势,以及世界经济普遍出现的增长减缓、停滞甚至衰退,各国又重回“保增长”政策轨道。在摩根士丹利跟踪研究覆盖的33个央行中,已有16家央行采取了宽松措施,10个发达经济体中有7个宽松,另外23个重要新兴市场国家也有9个采取了下调基准利率或存款准备金率的宽松政策。

两轮长期再回购操作(LTRO)之后,欧央行资产负债表总规模达到了3.2万亿欧元;美联储资产负债表为2.9万亿美元左右,预计,此轮欧洲央行针对二级国债市场进行无限量冲销式的国债购买(OMT)以及美联储开放式QE3,可能导致2013年底欧洲央行和美联储资产负债表飙升至4万亿美元,而日本央行启动购买资产计划以来第八次追加额度。

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