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人民币的大幅升值

Oct 31, 2012 Zhang Monan

发自北京——人民币兑美元即期汇率26日连续第二个交易日触及日浮动区间上限，这不仅是人民币扩大浮动汇率期间至1%以后的连续涨停，也是1994年人民币汇率改革以来的最高纪录，然而，在中国经济基本面并出现太大改观之下，人民币如此凌厉的升势的确需要保持警惕——这可能导致一场剧烈而又痛苦的逆转。

人民币近一个月以来的持续走高与全球流动性宽松的大背景相关，三季度以来，面对着持续恶化的主权债务局势，以及世界经济普遍出现的增长减缓、停滞甚至衰退，各国又重回“保增长”政策轨道。在摩根士丹利跟踪研究覆盖的33个央行中，已有16家央行采取了宽松措施，10个发达经济体中有7个宽松，另外23个重要新兴市场国家也有9个采取了下调基准利率或存款准备金率的宽松政策。

两轮长期再回购操作(LTRO)之后，欧央行资产负债表总规模达到了3.2万亿欧元；美联储资产负债表为2.9万亿美元左右，预计，此轮欧洲央行针对二级国债市场进行无限量冲销式的国债购买（OMT）以及美联储开放式QE3，可能导致2013年底欧洲央行和美联储资产负债表飙升至4万亿美元，而日本央行启动购买资产计划以来第八次追加额度。

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0 Comments on this paragraph, 2 in all 2 Comments on this article

Jonathan Lam Nov 2, 2012

Gamesmith94134: Renminbi Rising

“With little sign of improved economic fundamentals, rapid currency appreciation is a potentially dangerous development for China – in part owing to the risk of an abrupt and painful reversal.”

In the recent discussion on sovereignty environment risk, I thought the digital balance act on trade and international business may not be sufficient; and we should have emphasize on the moral restrains on how we undercut sovereignty environment risk. Apparently, Renminbi CNY and Hong Kong yuan CNH are haunted by their surpluses and growth; the bombardment on the inflow of hot cash that ignited another currency war. On the other hand, DJ lost 200 on a day that showed outflow made a halt after the Hong Kong Central Bank interfered the transaction the fourth time or someone is clearing his draw for US dollars for the CNH or CNY sold. I hope they are not related but my theory someone attempt to tilt the balance of exchange rate; and I takes its stand of the silver lining on how the currency is appreciated or what makes the world goes around.

Dollar performed badly in the last couple days, and the internal market in Hong Kong and China is charging the risk of hyperinflation on its imports and negativity of credit crunch on the commercials; if the dollar and renminbi are being manipulated to its exchange rate to yield profitability. If both are embarrassed for the fear of their rapid change rates by enforcing more of governmental or Central Bank interference; I supposed they should compromise on the surpluses and hot cash in the future talks.

Perhaps, they should not fight over the exchange rate for sake of the profitability or investment from governments, these funds must be detected and control through the IMF and the transfer unions. Many blame on the international Banking and its monitors on credits and exchange rates; I hope both should take another alternative on utilities on the world banking system that oversees these sovereignty funds and debts; instead, both are getting emotional on how to balance the trade to zero sums in a day; or just focus on the exchange rate or interest rate that are variables. There must be a transitory control on sovereignty debt or funds; and each must open its markets on the credit or burdens that foreigner’s investment injected to its economy instead of making restrictions on trade.

For much of the third in the throw weight system that have less influence on the exchange rate , I think it is time China should work more on the weight on the exchange rate that they should give up its surplus to cut the expenses on the loans to the debtor nations; and The FED should know well how its 4 trillion accountable on book may come to haunt them as well if inflation returns prior 2015, or credit crunch arrives by the outflow of how other deleverage its exchange rate if it falls. I do not think there is another alternative if both buttress on the war of its exchange rates.

For sake of your next generation, real estate or commodity price is not a trade off, and they have adverse effects on your sons and daughters. Money does not grow on the tree of exchange rates. Growth comes from the value after equitable and employment if deflationary is not appropriate.

Can they make it?

May the Buddha bless you?
Frank O'Callaghan Nov 1, 2012

The renminbi is set to appreciate. This is inevitable with the trade surplus. Only currency manipulation prevented it. It has great negative consequences for China unless it can develop it's own internal market. Unemployment and poverty will destabilize.

http://prosyn.org/ouRKsoj/zh;

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