Jon Krause Comments 0 Add to Bookmarks chinese Chinese Arabic English French German Facebook Twitter Whatsapp 经济不满情绪的周期 Dec 4, 2009 Harold James 佛罗伦萨 ——19世纪的经济运行总是呈明显的周期性。法国经济学家克莱芒·朱格拉尔（Clement Juglar，1819~1905）提出了以九到十年为一个循环的经济周期理论，并由此成名。我们也刚刚经历了我们这个时代的一次过剩—解体循环。但我们的循环和19世纪的循环大不一样。 19世纪的每次经济下行之后，人们很快便恢复过来，重新投入生意，一如往常。从这个意义上来讲，那时候的经济周期是一种比较平和的周而复始。但如今，周期性崩溃的每次爆发都会吓人们一大跳。每次经济崩溃之后，我们也会修正我们的经济学观点。差不多每十年，我们就会发觉某种增长模式已经变得捉襟见肘，难以为继了。1979年、1989年、1998年和2008年，我们每次都发觉，重新思考这个世界的时候到了。 1979年，十年中爆发了第二次石油价格休克之后，凯恩斯主义走到末路。当年10月，撒切尔夫人（Margaret Thatcher）当选英国首相，时任美联储主席的保罗·沃尔克（Paul Volcker）启动了大幅加息的紧缩政策，这两个互无关联的事件在时间上偶然重合，标志着一个时代的终结，人们不再把通货膨胀视作解决社会问题的一个药方。国家干预和货币扩张原先被当成安抚社会不满情绪的手段，但自那以后便同西欧的福利国家模式一道丧失了信誉。 To continue reading, please log in or enter your email address. Registration is quick and easy and requires only your email address. If you already have an account with us, please log in. Or subscribe now for unlimited access. Email required Receive our Sunday newsletter Log in Featured What’s Been Stopping the Left? Apr 10, 2018 Dani Rodrik Political Machismo Apr 10, 2018 Ian Buruma Will China Really Supplant US Economic Hegemony? Apr 2, 2018 Kenneth Rogoff Should Tech Companies Be More Tightly Regulated? Mar 30, 2018 Simon Johnson Liberal World Order, R.I.P. Mar 21, 2018 Richard N. Haass LinkedIn Google+ Bookmark Email Print 0 Facebook Twitter Whatsapp Show More Show More Contact Us http://prosyn.org/ctuX1Hh/zh;
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佛罗伦萨 ——19世纪的经济运行总是呈明显的周期性。法国经济学家克莱芒·朱格拉尔（Clement Juglar，1819~1905）提出了以九到十年为一个循环的经济周期理论，并由此成名。我们也刚刚经历了我们这个时代的一次过剩—解体循环。但我们的循环和19世纪的循环大不一样。
19世纪的每次经济下行之后，人们很快便恢复过来，重新投入生意，一如往常。从这个意义上来讲，那时候的经济周期是一种比较平和的周而复始。但如今，周期性崩溃的每次爆发都会吓人们一大跳。每次经济崩溃之后，我们也会修正我们的经济学观点。差不多每十年，我们就会发觉某种增长模式已经变得捉襟见肘，难以为继了。1979年、1989年、1998年和2008年，我们每次都发觉，重新思考这个世界的时候到了。
1979年，十年中爆发了第二次石油价格休克之后，凯恩斯主义走到末路。当年10月，撒切尔夫人（Margaret Thatcher）当选英国首相，时任美联储主席的保罗·沃尔克（Paul Volcker）启动了大幅加息的紧缩政策，这两个互无关联的事件在时间上偶然重合，标志着一个时代的终结，人们不再把通货膨胀视作解决社会问题的一个药方。国家干预和货币扩张原先被当成安抚社会不满情绪的手段，但自那以后便同西欧的福利国家模式一道丧失了信誉。
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