Jon Krause


佛罗伦萨 ——19世纪的经济运行总是呈明显的周期性。法国经济学家克莱芒·朱格拉尔(Clement Juglar,1819~1905)提出了以九到十年为一个循环的经济周期理论,并由此成名。我们也刚刚经历了我们这个时代的一次过剩—解体循环。但我们的循环和19世纪的循环大不一样。


1979年,十年中爆发了第二次石油价格休克之后,凯恩斯主义走到末路。当年10月,撒切尔夫人(Margaret Thatcher)当选英国首相,时任美联储主席的保罗·沃尔克(Paul Volcker)启动了大幅加息的紧缩政策,这两个互无关联的事件在时间上偶然重合,标志着一个时代的终结,人们不再把通货膨胀视作解决社会问题的一个药方。国家干预和货币扩张原先被当成安抚社会不满情绪的手段,但自那以后便同西欧的福利国家模式一道丧失了信誉。

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    Angela Merkel’s Endgame?

    The collapse of coalition negotiations has left German Chancellor Angela Merkel facing a stark choice between forming a minority government or calling for a new election. But would a minority government necessarily be as bad as Germans have traditionally thought?

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    The Saudi Prince’s Dangerous War Games

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