Jon Krause

经济不满情绪的周期

佛罗伦萨 ——19世纪的经济运行总是呈明显的周期性。法国经济学家克莱芒·朱格拉尔(Clement Juglar,1819~1905)提出了以九到十年为一个循环的经济周期理论,并由此成名。我们也刚刚经历了我们这个时代的一次过剩—解体循环。但我们的循环和19世纪的循环大不一样。

19世纪的每次经济下行之后,人们很快便恢复过来,重新投入生意,一如往常。从这个意义上来讲,那时候的经济周期是一种比较平和的周而复始。但如今,周期性崩溃的每次爆发都会吓人们一大跳。每次经济崩溃之后,我们也会修正我们的经济学观点。差不多每十年,我们就会发觉某种增长模式已经变得捉襟见肘,难以为继了。1979年、1989年、1998年和2008年,我们每次都发觉,重新思考这个世界的时候到了。

1979年,十年中爆发了第二次石油价格休克之后,凯恩斯主义走到末路。当年10月,撒切尔夫人(Margaret Thatcher)当选英国首相,时任美联储主席的保罗·沃尔克(Paul Volcker)启动了大幅加息的紧缩政策,这两个互无关联的事件在时间上偶然重合,标志着一个时代的终结,人们不再把通货膨胀视作解决社会问题的一个药方。国家干预和货币扩张原先被当成安抚社会不满情绪的手段,但自那以后便同西欧的福利国家模式一道丧失了信誉。

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