Las lecciones de Siria

PRINCETON – En tanto Estados Unidos y Rusia intentan concretar una conferencia que pueda llevar a las diversas partes en el conflicto sirio a la mesa de negociaciones, los potenciales participantes occidentales, al menos, deberían estar pensando en las implicancias más amplias del conflicto sirio para los dictadores y las democracias en todo el mundo. He aquí las lecciones hasta la fecha:

Los tipos malos ayudan a sus amigos. Los rusos y los iraníes están dispuestos a hacer lo que sea necesario para mantener al presidente Basharal-Assad en el poder. Hezbollah, abastecido por Irán, ya se ha desplegado abiertamente en el campo de batalla en respaldo del régimen de Assad. Rusia e Irán han abastecido al gobierno sirio con armas pesadas y otra asistencia militar, que incluye un envío ruso de misiles antibuques sofisticados con sistemas de radares avanzados. Estos ayudarán a Assad a protegerse y ahuyentar a todo aquel que se acerque al mini-estado alauí, que incluirá las instalaciones portuarias arrendadas por los rusos en Tartus.

La diplomacia sin una amenaza de fuerza creíble es una charla vacía. "Habla suavemente y lleva un gran garrote", aconsejaba Theodore Roosevelt. El presidente Barack Obama quiere liderar como es debido en los asuntos globales a través de un poder civil más que militar; entiende que las soluciones militares para los problemas de política exterior son inmensamente costosas y muchas veces contraproducentes en términos de hacer progresos en términos de seguridad y prosperidad para Estados Unidos en el largo plazo.

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