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默克尔抉择的后果

Sep 20, 2011 Robert Skidelsky

伦敦—— 对于欧盟减记受困欧元区成员国主权债务的方案，德国一直是反对阵营的领导者。与此相对的是，德国同意成立援助机构，比如欧洲金融稳定基金和欧洲金融稳定机构，这两大机构加起来有5 000亿欧元的贷款额度，另外，IMF也提供了2 500亿欧元。

这些机构从本质上说就是再融资机制。债务深重的欧元区成员国可以申请以低于商业贷款的利率从这些机构贷款，但要以实施更彻底的财政紧缩为条件。现有债务的本金和利息将维持原状。于是，债权人——主要是德国和法国银行——将不会在现有贷款上发生损失，同时债务人赢得了更多的事件来“打扫房子”。至少在理论上是这样的。

到目前为止，有三个国家——希腊、爱尔兰和葡萄牙——向这一安排求助了。2011年7月中旬，希腊主权债务规模为3 500亿欧元（相当于其GDP的160%）。目前，希腊政府必须为其10年期债券付出25%的利率，这些债券在二级市场上已经出现了五成的折价。

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Robert Skidelsky

Writing for PS since 2003
147 Commentaries

Robert Skidelsky, Professor Emeritus of Political Economy at Warwick University and a fellow of the British Academy in history and economics, is a member of the British House of Lords. The author of a three-volume biography of John Maynard Keynes, he began his political career in the Labour party, became the Conservative Party’s spokesman for Treasury affairs in the House of Lords, and was eventually forced out of the Conservative Party for his opposition to NATO’s intervention in Kosovo in 1999.